Seasonal factors of the hottest suwu futures deter

Su Wu Futures: seasonal factors determine the late trend of Tianjiao

affected by the weakening of crude oil, the increase of seasonal supply of rubber (22575, -405.00, -1.76%, bar) and the slowdown of downstream products once they meet the corresponding conditions, the Shanghai Rubber index closed two negative lines in July and August. Although HuJiao 809 continues to hold high under the support of bulls, this does not really reflect the future trend of Tianjiao. The two monthly negative lines of HuJiao forward contract more reasonably explain the supply and demand of Tianjiao

as for the slight rise of the 811 contract in the previous two weeks, the author believes that in addition to the periodic stability of the crude oil market, which has brought support to the rubber price, the seasonal factors of natural rubber also played an important role

the growth of natural rubber trees has certain requirements for geographical and climatic conditions. Typhoons or tropical storms, continuous rainy days, droughts, frosts, etc. will reduce the output of natural rubber and increase the price of rubber. At present, it is the typhoon prone season in the production area, and the recent continuous rainfall in southern Thailand and northern Malaysia has interrupted the tapping of plantations, boosting the popularity of natural rubber market. The author made statistics on the monthly rise and fall data of Shanghai Rubber index. The data showed that in August, the probability of rise and fall of futures rubber was half, while in September, the probability of rise was 70%. The seasonal trend of Tianjiao was verified in historical data

of course, in principle, as long as customers import the ultimately desired production capacity and process effect into the system, the more they should rank first. The phased stability of the oil market also brings support to Tianjiao. After the sharp adjustment in the early stage, the negative factors of international crude oil have been digested. Although the global economy continues to slow down and the market is still worried about the decline in demand, various positive factors continue to emerge at the bottom. The fundamentals of global oil supply and demand determine that any problem in the supply side may bring support to oil prices, and the probability of significant decline in oil prices is very small. We expect that the international oil price will fluctuate mainly in the US dollar/barrel range in the near future, and there will be strong support around us $110/barrel

however, the trend of synthetic rubber is obviously dragging down Shanghai rubber. Recently, due to weak downstream demand, the domestic synthetic rubber market is depressed and the market trading is light. Taking the market price of polybutadiene rubber in Shanghai as an example, as of August 28, its mainstream quotation was yuan/ton, down more than 2500 yuan from the beginning of August

on the other hand, the demand of downstream rubber industry is slowing down. Affected by the slowdown of global economic growth, high raw material prices and other factors, the demand of tire and automobile manufacturing industry is gradually weak. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the national tire production totaled 280.656 million, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by nearly 11 percentage points compared with the same period last year; Tire exports fell 6.4% year-on-year in June; In June, the national automobile production increased by 14.8% year-on-year, 13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The production growth rate of other rubber products also slowed down

in conclusion, although the price of natural rubber may be under pressure due to the weakness of synthetic rubber and the downturn of downstream demand, it will be supported by seasonal factors such as rainfall and typhoons in September, and the space below will be limited. As for October and November, the trend of Tianjiao may not be good. According to the monthly data of Shanghai Jiao index in, the decline probability of Shanghai Jiao in these two months is 50% and 70% respectively. During this period, the probability of disastrous weather will be reduced, and the production of natural rubber will be normal. In addition to the increasing stock of natural rubber in the previous period, the unsalable domestic production area standard rubber due to the reluctance to sell in the early stage will also form downward pressure on the market. After entering December, Shanghai rubber will usher in a rising market for two to three months. At this time, the rubber cutting in domestic production areas will gradually stop, and downstream manufacturers need to replenish inventory to meet the production needs during the cutting suspension period

as for whether the ru809 bulls will change the month to the device ru811 that changes the number of times, and then continue to support Shanghai Jiaotong, the author believes that this possibility exists, but from the position ranking of the last period, this sign is not obvious. From July to August, while the top 20 long positions of ru809 continued to decrease, the top 20 long positions of ru811 did not increase significantly

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