In the first 20 days of May, the new loans of the

2022-07-26
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In the first 20 days of May, the new loans of the four major banks were only 34billion

Guide: the national development and Reform Commission accelerated the examination and approval, stuck to the cold treatment of credit, shijinfeng entered may 2012, and the national development and Reform Commission showed obvious signs of accelerating the examination and approval of projects. On May 22, the project approval and approval column of the national development and Reform Commission showed that up to 100 projects were approved on May 21 alone

in May, 2012, the national development and Reform Commission showed obvious signs of accelerating project approval

on May 22, the "project approval and approval" column of the national development and Reform Commission showed that up to 100 projects were approved on May 21 alone, most of which were in the field of clean energy, and the total number of approved projects was almost equal to the sum of the first 20 days of May

this is not an isolated event. According to liuyuhui, director of the Key Laboratory of finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, it was observed that "the project approval speed of the national development and Reform Commission in this month has been significantly faster than that in January, and the land supply in the same period has also increased by 40% over the same period last year."

however, the re recovery of investment has not yet been transmitted to the commercial banks suffering from the lack of credit demand. On May 22, a person close to a large state-owned bank disclosed to this newspaper that as of May 20, the industry, agriculture, China Construction has not recovered from the short-term adjustment of the credit structure at the beginning of the month, and the new loan was only 34billion yuan; At the same time, the loss of deposits is still intensifying. The deposits of the four major banks fell by 270billion yuan again in the previous 20 days

will a new round of stimulus plan be released again? On the 22nd, a senior executive of a joint-stock bank told that the recent internal spirit of the people's Bank of China is that the total amount of credit will not be relaxed. If the credit line is tight, commercial banks can apply for early release

however, at present, the biggest problem facing the bank is the general demand for launch. BMW currently says that it is insufficient to use a large amount of carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) in the cabin structure of its new flagship model, the 7-series sedan. As the above-mentioned senior executives said, "the demand for platform controlled, real estate controlled and disintermediated bond issuance by good enterprises is indeed small."

credit demand shrinks greatly

"short term loans and bill discounting are still the mainstream of new loans." A person from the Northeast Branch of a large state-owned bank disclosed that in recent months, the loan squeeze at the beginning of each month and the concentration in the last five days at the end of each month have become his normal work

from the data alone, since the beginning of 2012, except for the Spring Festival in January, which led to the advance of loan provision, the credit provision at the beginning of the month was slow, and the new loans of the four major banks in the first 10 days of the month were only 20billion and 30billion yuan; However, this does not affect the timely completion of the loan

"the effective demand for credit is insufficient, and the bank is not willing to waste the quota. It can only start to sprint at the end of the month and the end of the quarter in order to occupy the quota. Bill discount is a good choice." According to the above-mentioned branches, once the quota is not used up, the head office is likely to take punitive measures such as reducing the quota

In April, bill discount once accounted for one third of new loans. This has led to the fluctuation of loans of commercial banks this year. From January to the end of the month, the "next five days" concentrated sprint, and at the beginning of next month, there will be compression

a number of bankers interviewed by this newspaper frankly said that, generally speaking, the current effective demand for credit is insufficient, and the credit supply in January is very poor, so it is basically impossible to invest. There are three main reasons for not being able to invest:

first, the effective demand for credit is insufficient, and the demand that meets the conditions for bank loans is not strong; 2、 The bank pricing is too high for enterprises to bear. In April, all banks raised the loan interest rate. The comprehensive pricing of one-year loans of some banks has exceeded 10% (plus the guarantee rate), but the actual affordable price of some industries in the real economy sector is 10%-12%, which is under great pressure from enterprises; Third, the overall economic downturn and the downturn in business operations have resulted in less funds and insufficient orders

to make matters worse, the trend of the loss of deposits in the banking system has not been significantly improved by May. As of May 20, the four major banks decreased by about 270billion yuan

according to the analysis of CICC, after expanding principal guaranteed financial products to increase deposits in the first quarter, some banks felt the negative impact of the decline in interest margin and began to adjust their strategies in the second quarter, taking into account the balance between scale and efficiency. Therefore, it may lead to the restoration of distorted deposits

not a "new stimulus plan"

the weak credit growth in May reflects the measures taken by the Reform Commission to speed up the approval of infrastructure projects, which has not yet had a significant effect on the credit granting policies of commercial banks

previously, the year-on-year growth rate of China's fixed asset investment in the first April has dropped again and again, approaching the integer threshold of 20%, and even hitting a 10-year low since 2003

recently, Premier Wen Jiabao stressed during his investigation that "some experience on using the experimental machine for customers should make the experimental machine technology take the lead in the country and put stable growth in a more important position". However, the statement that monetary policy should be further relaxed was still "disgusted" by bankers. On the 22nd, a person from the credit management department of a joint-stock bank admitted that another $4trillion would be a disaster. Since the beginning of the 21st century, he asked, "increasing investment approval is a 'qualitative' judgment, but how to 'quantify'? And is the reference for increasing investment last year or this year?"

in the view of the above-mentioned people, after the 4trillion yuan stimulus plan in 2009, the abnormal situation of bank loan chasing projects that generally emerged will not reappear. According to the Convention, before the start of bank credit, when the central or local governments set up projects and approved them, they often convened a meeting of commercial banks, but "these substantive measures have not been carried out yet"

CICC also believes that with the implementation of the above policies, the proportion of medium - and long-term corporate loans will increase, but the market should not expect too much. If the medium and long-term corporate loans increase significantly under the stimulus of policies, it means that the bank's credit assets are further solidified and inefficient, and the bank shares need to be more cautious

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